5.0 != 3.3
I just realized that the XC9572XL’s “5-volt tolerant I/O pins” do not mean that the device itself can be powered with 5 volts. It’s a 3.3-volt device. I’ve been running it from the Arduino’s 5-volt supply.
Sigh.
With this newly understood information, I hope to discover that the JTAG Whisperer is working correctly, and that the incorrect voltage was preventing the CPLD from programming itself. Other possibilities are (1) my code is still buggy but the CPLD is happy to be finally running at the right voltage, and (2) I’ve fried my poor little ‘9572.